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Polyester Market Outlook Will Weaken &Nbsp; Downstream Resistance Increases.

2010/7/5 12:04:00 27

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Polyester Filament

Combined with the recent analysis of various factors, I believe the market will weaken.

The reasons are as follows.

Polyester price

The rise is too large, and the downstream conflict increases.

According to statistics, the polyester FDY product has increased by 1500-1900 yuan / ton since June.

For example, FDY75D/36F rose from 13300 yuan / ton in early June to 15100 yuan / ton (market acceptance price in June), and FDY50D/24F in Taicang market also rose from 14300 yuan / ton in early June to 16200 yuan / ton now, up 1900 yuan / ton in Shengze market.

POY products also rose significantly, with a range of 1000-1700 yuan / ton.

For example, POY75D/72F rose from 11700 yuan / ton in early June to 13400 yuan / ton in Shengze market, and the POY150D/144F warehouse market also rose from 11100 yuan / ton in early June to 12100 yuan / ton now.

DTY relatively small increase, basically around 500-700 yuan / ton, such as DTY150D/288F light network in the Shengze market rose from 13600 yuan / ton in early June to 14300 yuan / ton, DTY50D/72F micro network in Xiaoshan market rose from 18800 yuan / ton in early June to 19300 yuan / ton.

The sharp rise in the price of polyester filament causes the cost of weaving enterprises to increase. As a result, the resistance of the weaving factories to the purchase of polyester goods has begun to aggravate, and the atmosphere of market wait-and-see has become increasingly strong.

2. Downstream weaving factories and bomb manufacturers.

Stock

Sufficient, there will be a "neutral" demand for raw materials.

In the past month, polyester has been rising sharply on the basis of international crude oil prices. Zhejiang has announced the policy of power restriction and stop production and tight supply.

The downstream weaving factories and bomb manufacturers were affected by buying up or buying down mentality, all of which made a substantial margin.

On the whole, weaving enterprises have almost a month's raw material inventory, and even high up to two months. It is obvious that the short market demand for raw materials will not be too large, and the production and sale rate of polyester factories will be weakened.

International crude oil

And other upstream raw material prices are weakening.

Recently, due to the announcement of economic indicators in Europe and the United States in June and the bad news of us reform of financial institutions, the market risk aversion rose again, and the US dollar rebounded, leading to a low oil price.

At the close of July 1st, the New York Mercantile Exchange delivered light crude oil futures in August, which fell $2.68 to $72.95 a barrel.

London market Brent crude oil futures in Beihai fell $2.67 to settle at $72.34 a barrel.

Affected by this, 1 PX Asia's lower, closing price of 869.50-870.50 U.S. dollars / ton (FOB Korea); 884.50-885.50 U. S. dollar / ton (CFR Taiwan), the price fell by 6 dollars compared with the previous day.

In terms of PTA, PTA has been running high this year because of its high profits. PTA has been generally running at a high level and PTA stocks have remained at a high level.

This caused the PTA market to remain weak, such as the July 2nd East China PTA spot market quotation fell to 7000-7050 yuan / ton nearby, the mainstream talks at 6950-7000 yuan / ton.

In addition, the demand for PTA will soon be weakened as the production of polyester industry in Zhejiang is limited in summer.

The market for ethylene glycol, another polyester feedstock, was also weak and consolidated. In July 2nd, the price in the East China market was 5900 yuan / ton.

MEG prices are expected to remain weak in the future.

4, the fabric market is coming in the off-season, and the market digestion ability is decreasing.

7, August is the traditional off-season of the textile market, the overall sales situation of the market has shown a marked decline compared with last month.

As sales fall, weaving manufacturers will be more cautious about purchasing high priced raw materials.

Moreover, as the largest fabric production base in Shengze, recently, in order to control the waste water discharge from the water jet looms and reduce the discharge of sewage, weaving enterprises have to take a break.

This has greatly affected the capacity of weaving factories, and also greatly reduced the digestion capacity of raw materials. Coupled with the high inventory of raw materials currently woven by manufacturers, the demand for raw materials will eventually become smaller and smaller.

On the whole, the market's pushing effect on the polyester Market in Zhejiang's summer power restriction plan has begun to fade, and the upstream raw material market is weak, the downstream market has entered the off-season, coupled with the high raw material inventory of the weaving factories.