Market Dynamics: The Sharp Decline In Futures Prices Of American Cotton Last Friday Brought About Uncertainty In The Expected Future

Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated last Friday. The closing price of Zheng cotton's May contract was 13540 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton, or 0.52%, from the previous trading day.

In terms of spot goods, China's cotton price index (CCIndex) 3128B Xinjiang machinery picking price was 14120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the basis difference between 3128B Xinjiang machinery picking price and Zheng Mian's main contract (CF2505) was 580 yuan/ton.

As the Spring Festival approaches, textile enterprises currently have few orders, mainly short ones. Inventory production continues to increase, and a small amount of raw materials are replenished at bargain prices.

In terms of external market, the futures price of American cotton fell sharply last Friday. The March contract of American cotton closed at 66.96 cents/pound, down 1.58 cents/pound, or 2.31%, from the previous trading day.

The January supply and demand report released by USDA raised China's output by 390000 tons to 6.53 million tons, and slightly reduced imports by 10000 tons to 1.74 million tons; US output increased by 30000 tons to 3.14 million tons, export decreased by 70000 tons to 2.4 million tons, and inventory consumption ratio increased by 3.78 percentage points to 37.6%; Global production increased by 1.4 million tons to 26.01 million tons, consumption increased by 450000 tons to 25.23 million tons, and inventory consumption ratio increased by 2.11 percentage points.

As of the week of January 2, the cumulative export contract of American cotton in this year was 1.8142 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 244600 tons, or 11.88%.

The USDA report in January significantly increased China's production and global production, but according to the export volume of American cotton estimated in the report in January, it is still optimistic. There is still room for downward adjustment in the future, and the bad news has not been completely released.

In the context of loose supply and demand in the global balance sheet, we will maintain the rebound and choose the empty space in operation before the second quarter of 2025. In addition, we need to pay attention to the marginal change of tariff policy after Trump officially took office in January.