After The Holidays, Zheng Cotton Futures Plunged No More Profitable News.

On the two day after the holiday, the trend of Zheng cotton suddenly came to a 180 degree turn. The main contract of two days short of the 1905 contract fell from the highest point of 15450 yuan / ton the previous day to 14995 yuan / ton yesterday.

The sudden change of trend has drawn many conjectures, especially in the sensitive period when China and the United States are about to start negotiations tomorrow.

As usual, cotton prices have plummeted, and there are always bad news in various channels. On the contrary, there will be a lot of news, because people always have to find reasons for the ups and downs, though most of the time are far fetched.

Today, most of the futures varieties have fallen sharply, whether black, colored or agricultural products. They are very weak. They do not know if cotton is affected by this big environment.

According to the author's analysis, Zheng cotton fell to 15000 yuan / ton near the normal phenomenon, after all, Zheng cotton is now the interval form of fluctuation, as long as there is no break to create a new low is normal performance.

As for whether the trend is ushered in reverse, we should continue to focus on the trend of the later stage.

Of course, judging from the existing traces, cotton has not changed its trend.

Globally, global consumption growth has been significantly lowered by the impact of international trade frictions.

Although USDA adjusted the data, the tight supply situation remained unchanged.

According to USDA February statistics, the global cotton production and consumption gap is still 1 million 130 thousand tons.

However, taking into account that the end inventory remains at 16 million 437 thousand tons, the cotton inventory is still slow, and the consumption of cotton will also be overshadowed by the slowdown in global economic growth.

"According to the national cotton market monitoring system, the cotton production in 2018/19 is 6 million 75 thousand tons, the consumption of textile cotton is 8 million 63 thousand tons, and the other cotton is about 360 thousand tons. In the same year, the domestic cotton production and demand gap was about 2 million 350 thousand tons, down 400 thousand tons compared with the same period last year," which is the content of the national cotton market monitoring system January monthly forecast.

According to its production and sale data, and imported cotton data, domestic cotton production and marketing are basically balanced.

From a fundamental perspective, under the condition of basic balance of supply and demand of cotton, there is no longer a single and unilateral trend.

Therefore, the author believes that there is no obvious profit or bad conditions, cotton is still temporarily maintaining a range of shocks, a rise and fall can not explain anything, at least some distance from the break.