The Situation Of "Low Income And High Volatility" Continues: Lying Down And Earning Less And Less Opportunities.

This year, the stock market has the worst performance in large class assets, but there are still investment opportunities.

Because the profitability of many enterprises has bottomed out and begun to improve gradually, the future rise of stocks will mainly come from the fundamental driving force, and the sensitivity of stock risk preference to earnings will be stronger than that of liquidity, while the logic of low interest rate driving market growth can not be sustained.

Xu Xiaoqing is cautious about the bond market, which is generally favored by the market.

Under the low interest rate level, monetary policy promotes the economy.

Diminishing situation.

The Central Bank of the world is also reflecting on how long the role of ultra conventional monetary easing will last, and gradually shifts its focus to fiscal policy.

This means that the space for further easing monetary policy is limited, and the impetus for the continued rise of bonds is insufficient.

The long-term rate of return on financial assets must be close to the level of interest rates, so a low interest rate environment also means that financial assets are not likely to continue to get high returns.

At the same time, a large number of excess capital in various assets to find relatively undervalued assets for allocation, causing asset prices to rise and fall, making all kinds of assets present "low yield, high volatility" characteristics.

The chance to earn money lying down is no doubt less and less.

Adjustments must also be made.

The past investment environment is more suitable for long-term trend allocation, but at present, the characteristics of "low income and high volatility" determine that investors have to increase the frequency of pactions initiatively and strengthen the flexibility of pactions, so as to avoid relatively short term fluctuations and get relatively good absolute returns.

For practitioners, it is not only a mental challenge, but also a physical challenge.

The increase in time to market is a matter of concern to the market.

First, we need to raise cash at any time.

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In the "low income and high volatility" market environment, the relative value of cash is actually promoted because the outbreak of "Black Swans" may be more frequent, and enough liquidity can be achieved at any time, and there will be enough chips to pick up bargains after asset price adjustment.

Although bonds have been regarded as a hedge against cash in the past, fluctuations in such a low interest rate are bound to increase and may not necessarily be safe.

The second is the increase in the effectiveness of the left side pactions.

In a strong market environment, the right trading is obviously more effective, but in the current environment, it is probably more effective to use moderate positions to carry on the left side paction.

Because in the case of weakening trend and increasing volatility, we should avoid crowded pactions as much as possible, or talk about pactions that are consistent with market expectations.

When the market is in line with expectations, it means that the prices of these assets have fully responded to expectations and the positions are very concentrated, and the real fluctuation of asset prices is often caused by expected differences.

Employees' demand for information has also changed.

The first is from the past to the depth of the pursuit of breadth.

With the increase in cross-border investment behavior, every market has increased many "savage laymen" and the rules of the game are changing.

For example, in this year's commodity market, investors who are familiar with the fundamentals may become rather confused. This requires that when grasping investment opportunities, they can not only be confined to direct related information, but also understand the impact of other market changes on such assets.

The second is the screening and filtering of complex information.

Now investors get access to information more and more easily. What is missing is not information, but how to digest information efficiently.

The role of the media in the two processing and pushing of information is becoming more and more important.

In terms of specific asset classes, Xu Xiaoqing said, "this year has always been the most promising commodity."

"Over the past four years, commodities have been in a declining bear market, and this year there has been a substantial rebound.

The reasons are basic support and liquidity.

For now, I think the momentum of commodity growth is not over yet. The driving force in the early stage mainly comes from supply contraction. In the future, it may turn to demand pull, but the shock will intensify, and the difficulty of grasping the trend is increasing.