Cotton Prices Will Fall Into The Bottom Of The Market

After P long holiday, the market reserves increased significantly, boosted the < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com" > cotton < /a > spot price and purchase reference price.

However, there are many uncertainties in the global macroeconomic situation, and the risk of capital flight is strong.

The author expects that the price of Zheng cotton will fall down along the downstream channel in the short term.

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< p > downstream demand is weak, and imports continue to fall.

Customs statistics show that in September, China imported 201 thousand and 300 tons of cotton, down 27%, down 23% compared with the same period last year. In the first 9 months of this year, the total import of cotton was 3 million 226 thousand and 800 tons, down nearly 20% compared to the same period last year.

The main reason for the significant decrease in imports is downstream demand and policy quota changes.

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< p > China cotton information network predicts that in 2013, China's cotton sown area was 70 million 730 thousand mu, down 5.8% compared to the same period last year, and its output was 7 million 10 thousand tons, down 7% compared with the same period last year.

Among them, the reduction of yield per unit area in Xinjiang and Yangtze River affected production prediction.

Affected by frost weather and pickers' tension, the progress and acquisition progress of new cotton in 2013 lagged behind the same period last year.

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< p > the enterprise mentality is cautious, the collection and storage is behind schedule.

This year, the new standards have been put into operation. Cotton enterprises should set seed cotton purchase price according to the results of public inspection, and the acquisition process is slow.

As of October 30th, China's new cotton < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_q.asp" > storage and storage > /a > accumulated 997250 tons, about 58.4% of the same period last year.

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In 2012, the reference price of cotton purchase in China was 19531 yuan / ton, and the reference price in October 31, 2013 was 19628 yuan / ton, and the current purchase and storage price was 20400 yuan / ton.

Beginning in September 18, 2013, there was a closing in store, and China's cotton spot price index CCIndex (328) was 19149 yuan / ton at that time, and it has risen to 19651 yuan / ton in October 31st.

Visible, the purchase and storage of the spot market to boost the role of obvious.

However, there are rumors in the market that next year or the abolition of the policy should be abolished.

At that time, direct subsidy or other measures will be adopted to support cotton production.

If rumors are true, China's cotton prices will face a downward risk.

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< p > the impact strength of cheap cotton is limited.

This year, the price of cotton continues to be lower than domestic prices. The price of imported cotton is 90-100 cents / pound, equivalent to 15120-16271 yuan / ton after the sliding price. The price of imported cotton in India is 83-100 cents / pound, which is equivalent to the price of 14392-16271 yuan / ton after sliding.

There is a price difference of 3000-5000 yuan / ton between domestic cotton and domestic cotton spot price.

The purchase intention of the enterprises is higher, but restricted by the import quota policy, the actual import volume is limited, and the outer cotton will not have a significant impact on the domestic market price fluctuations.

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< p > ZHENG cotton index will oscillate along the downstream channel.

< a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > ZHENG Mian < /a > index daily K-line chart shows that the EMA system has strong technical pressure on the disk, and Zheng cotton has been in a large downstream channel recently.

Through the golden section analysis of the trend of Zheng cotton index in 2013, the author finds that at present, the Zheng cotton index has dropped to 38% place below 19587 yuan / ton.

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