Ye Tan: Pensions Entering The Market Is Equivalent To Falling Into The Water.

The pension market must be cautious and prudent.

　　 Old-age pension The "informed" people have disclosed the specific size of the pension market, ranging from 360 billion yuan to 580 billion yuan.

The above statement is not reliable. Authoritative information from the Ministry of human resources shows that the relevant rules are under study. The Department of social security fund supervision of the Ministry of human resources recently released the key points of the supervision of social insurance funds in 2012. It said that this year it will study the investment and operation of the pension fund, and clearly study the basic old-age insurance fund. Investment The operation mode, management mechanism, policy measures, and supervision methods, etc., put forward suggestions for improving policies. fund Maintain value and increase value. In January 20th, Yin Chengji, spokesman for the Ministry of human resources and social security, made it clear that there was no plan to enter the pension market. According to China's national conditions, it is being studied that the distance from the first quarter to the market is not to be measured.

One of the theories that support pension market entry is that the pension market is because the gap is too large, and the yield of savings and treasury bond investment is too low, so we must pursue high returns. Another way of saying this is even more wonderful. The pension market can boost confidence in the stock market and raise its own rate of return, killing two birds with one stone.

Whether the pension market is to save itself or save the stock market is a core issue that must be clarified.

At present, the stock market is declining, and we really need a shot in the arm to save it. There are a lot of companies listed in the queue. In order to go public, the amount of fund-raising has shrunk by more than half. Hainan Airlines is also in the same position. In January 30th, Hainan airlines announced that the company had adjusted its A share plan for non-public offering. After adjustment, the company's non-public offering price will be reduced from no less than 6.42 yuan / share to no less than 4.19 yuan / share, the amount of which is no more than 1 billion 910 million shares, and the total amount to be raised will remain unchanged at no more than 8 billion yuan. Hainan Airlines follows the pace of the market to lower the issue price, of which 6 billion will be used to repay bank loans, and the remaining funds will be used to supplement its liquidity. Some people laugh when they cry, and Hua Lu Bo Na issues 82.46 times earnings, not knowing what investors feel in the two market.

In the current market, it is clear that the stock market needs more pensions, while cash - based pensions do not have to rely on the big tree in the stock market. The pension market is equivalent to falling into the water, sharing the fate of China's securities market and dancing with some executives.

Pension market is to seek the margin of safety of investment, at least than deposits. Rate of return Higher.

Also seeking safe funds, the yields of insurance and social security funds on the Chinese stock market vary greatly. Over the past 10 years, the annual average investment return of the social security fund has reached 9.17%, while the investment return rate of the insurance industry is 4.73%. In the past 5 years, the average annual return on investment of the social security fund has reached 15.83%, while the insurance industry has only 6.17%. This year, the return on investment of insurance funds is still poor. Zhou Yanli, vice chairman of the Insurance Regulatory Commission, said in a speech recently that the investment yield of insurance funds in 2011 is less than 4%. Is the investment of social security fund better than insurance fund?

Of course, the investment return rate of social security fund is better than that of general institutions. From 2003 to 2010, the total assets of the national social security fund increased from 132 billion 501 million yuan to 856 billion 690 million yuan, and the operating profit rates in the past eight years were 3.56%, 2.61%, 4.16%, 29.01%, 43.19%, -6.79%, 16.12% and 4.23% respectively. In contrast, the basic social security five risk fund can not beat the inflation rate.

However, we must consider that 45% of the social security fund invested in fixed income products, about 30% of equity investment, and 25% of equity investment and PE investment. The low-priced state owned shares allocated to the social security fund enjoyed one or two market price differentials. The bond and PE bull market were unfailing. If the social security fund was mixed up in the two market, the consequences would be unpredictable. Moreover, the larger the scale of funds and the higher the cost of investment, the integration of the five risk funds into social security funds. Under the background of good companies and imperfect systems, the difficulty of investment can be imagined. Unless the social security fund is always good enough, many special investors in China's capital market are not good.

Those who believe in Seagal's rule believe that stock market investment can gain positive gains in the long run. Walton, a professor at the great Pennsylvania business school in the state of Pennsylvania, traced back to the 1801 Stocks For the Long-Run, which compiled the accumulated real return figures of assets such as stocks, bonds, bonds and cash. The capital gains and interest or dividend income were added together, and then adjusted according to the inflation factors. The conclusion was that the overall cumulative return of stock grew fairly consistently. In the past two or more centuries, it was about 7% annually.

It's wonderful. However, if you ask investors in the US 401K who have experienced the 2008 stock market volatility, I am afraid they will come to the opposite conclusion. Their stock investment will give them no pension and envy the safe elderly. American investors have drawn different conclusions based on the average stock returns of different ten years. The high growth of the stock market depends on the timing of entering and leaving the market. In 1931, when the big bear market rebounded, the market participants could not return to the market until 1960s, until the next bull market opened. Another vital element is that investment funds must be allocated equally between the blue chips of the stock market every year, such as beautiful 50, such as the average investment of 2% among the beautiful 50 stocks, whether it is win or lose, which is the greatest torture to human nature, and such investment can not happen in reality.

Keynes said that in the long run, people will die. Therefore, it is of little significance to explore the average yield of 200 years. From the perspective of investors, the variables existing in reality are valuable, otherwise, there is only theoretical significance.

The pension market is, in the final analysis, the battle for the management of the five risk funds. Local governments can play a lot of maneuvers in the face of the huge five risk scale, and the social security fund is, of course, the more capital they have to manage, the better the people's Insurance Department and the Ministry of finance are in the negotiations. A lot of money is ahead of us.

For those who pay pensions, no matter who manages, they must follow the principles of openness, transparency and voluntariness. Finally, the ownership of five risks is owned by individuals. What is interesting is that in this debate, the real interest Stakeholders, pension payers and businesses have lost their voice.