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Who Is The Winner Through The Industrial Cycle?

2012/1/24 10:49:00 7

Most of China's textile and garment enterprises do not form high-end proprietary brands and channel control power in the international market. At present, the industrial pfer of low-end manufacturing links has already emerged, so enterprises have encountered manufacturing links.

passive

The awkward situation that foreign trade and high-end areas (brands and channels) are difficult to break through in the short term.

According to the traditional industry life cycle theory, Chinese textile and garment enterprises will face the risk of leaving the industrial chain, but in recent years, the rise of Chinese demand has become the biggest opportunity for local enterprises to cross the traditional life cycle.

Textile and apparel listed companies with brand premium capability are expected to cross.

cycle

Continue to raise prices on the premise of volume increase.

The relative advantages of men's clothing listed companies are obvious. The main listed companies are stable in operation, internal fine management is more in place, and the ability to resist systemic risk is stronger.

Following the traditional industrial life cycle theory, it is a historical rule to grow from maturity to maturity, and then gradually decline or even withdraw.

Although most of China's textile and garment enterprises are mainly outside demand, they do not form high-end proprietary brands and channel control power in the international market. At present, the industrial pfer of low-end manufacturing links has become a clue. Therefore, enterprises are facing the embarrassing situation that the manufacturing links are passively removed and the high-end areas (brands and channels) are hard to break through in the short term.

at present

Global apparel

The leading enterprises in the industrial chain are mainly concentrated in developed countries such as Europe, the United States, Japan and so on. By controlling the key links such as R & D, design, brand and channel, the enterprises gain most of the value added share of the industrial chain.

In 2010, China's textile and clothing direct exports accounted for 32.71% of the global textile and clothing trade.

If considering other factors such as indirect export, according to the GF group's macro group's calculation, the export dependence of China's textile and textile products industry will reach 52.87% and 37.17% respectively.

But with the rapid development of China's economy, the price advantage of resources has gradually weakened, and the Southeast Asian countries represented by Vietnam, Bangladesh and other countries have highlighted the relative cost advantages, coupled with the continued appreciation of the local currency, the low-end textile clothing orders have shifted outward.

In the first three quarters of 2011

Imported garments

In terms of quantity, although China's market share is still the largest, it has seen negative growth (-3.87%) compared with the same period last year, and the substitution effect of Vietnam and Kampuchea has already appeared.

Ten years ago, China had the largest share of global OEM for Nike shoes (40%), and now it has been overtaken by Vietnam.

At present, most textile and garment enterprises in China are mainly outside demand, but they do not form high-end proprietary brands and channel control power in the international market. Their advantages are only reflected in processing and manufacturing. Therefore, if the manufacturing industry is pferred passively, it will mean withdrawal.

At the same time, the enterprises retained by the two industrial pfer control the high-end links of the apparel industry chain. The first advantage of the US, Europe, Japan and South Korea in brand and channel is Chinese enterprises can not overstep in the short term.

According to the traditional industrial life cycle theory, China's textile industry

clothing

Enterprises will face the risk of leaving the industrial chain, but in recent years, the rise of China's demand has become the biggest opportunity for local enterprises to cross the traditional life cycle.

Customer group, consumption ability and consumption will are the three key factors to determine the capacity of clothing consumption market.

The huge demand created by the rising of consumption power and the rise of brand awareness has also attracted many foreign brands to enter. Both the mass clothing brand and the luxury brand all regard the Chinese market as the biggest increment in the future.

The order of foreign demand slump or the loss of industrial pfer can be made up from the domestic demand market. Local enterprises will pass through the traditional life cycle theory and take the lead in the upgrading of the value chain in China at the same time of releasing domestic demand, and create and enhance the popularity and reputation of the independent brand in a relatively relaxed environment.

Despite the fact that international brands have already entered the domestic market, the growth of the local brand clothing market is just beginning.

Channel advantage

And product positioning with high cost performance has grown.

Combined with the macro level in 2012, CPI will fall back, but this period is also accompanied by a slowdown in economic growth.

CPI is positively related to the growth of total retail sales of social consumer goods, so the fall of CPI in the future is bound to slow down the growth of retail sales, and the growth of the industry's revenue will also slow down.

The fall of CPI in the first half of 2012 made the effect of raising price obviously weakened.

There is a strong positive correlation between GDP and consumer confidence index. Therefore, the fall of GDP will reduce the consumption intention. At the same time, the decline of economic growth will bring about a decline in corporate profitability and decrease the consumption power.

Considering the slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter, the growth of volume will also be under pressure. The effect of price increase and squeeze demand has emerged.

Under such a macro environment, we have

brand

The textile and apparel listed companies with a premium price are expected to go through the cycle and continue to raise prices on the premise of volume increase.

Since the 2008 financial crisis, the growth rate of men's clothing listed companies has been consistently higher than that of the industry average. In 2012, the order of spring and summer will increase the price synchronously, and the relative advantage is obvious.

Meanwhile, the men's clothing industry is in a mature stage. The main listed companies are steady in operation, internal fine management is more in place, and the ability to resist systemic risk is stronger.

For example, seven wolves, nine Mu Wang, Hinur and so on, the growth of the listed companies in leisure industry will increase in the future, and the increase will be slowed down when the economy slows down in the first half of next year.

Although there are channel pressing phenomena in the home textile sub industry listed companies, they are still in the period of growth.