General Situation Of China'S Textile And Garment Trade In The First Two Months

At the beginning of 2021, China's foreign trade exports have made a good start and achieved rapid growth on the basis of a low base at the beginning of 2020. In the first two months of the first two months of the new year, the textile and clothing export achieved a high-speed positive growth, with a cumulative increase of more than 50% compared with the previous year, indicating that China's textile and garment production and trade has been fully restored. However, due to the uncertainty of the time and degree of the global consumer demand recovery, the export of epidemic prevention materials, which played a major role in promoting the growth in the early stage, has gradually declined, and the trend of pushing up the growth only by the extremely low year-on-year base will not last for a long time. Therefore, it is expected that although exports will continue to grow in the second quarter of this year, the growth rate will return to the normal level.

The rise of raw material prices has a negative impact on the production layout of enterprises. Since the beginning of the year, the prices of textile raw materials have risen rapidly under the combined effects of domestic economic boost, international market demand recovery after the alleviation of the epidemic situation, stimulation of US monetary easing policy, soaring international crude oil prices, capital speculation and other factors. The prices of textile raw materials are at a high level after the Spring Festival. For example, in February, the domestic average price of cotton increased by 18% year-on-year and 3.6% month on month, while the average price of imported cotton increased by 20.8% and 6.2% respectively. The growth of chemical fiber and man-made fiber are also high, viscose, polyester, spandex average growth of more than 30% at the beginning of the year. The soaring prices of raw materials lead to the further squeeze of enterprise profits, which is detrimental to the start of production and export of orders.

Exchange rate fluctuations will become normal during the year. In 2020, the RMB will depreciate first and then rise against the US dollar, with an annual appreciation of 6.47%. Since February 2021, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has declined slightly. At the end of February, the spot exchange rates of onshore and offshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.4590 and 6.4780, respectively, with an increase of 0.03% and a depreciation of 0.5% compared with the end of January, respectively. According to experts' analysis, the factors that affect the rise and fall of RMB exchange rate in 2021 will exist at the same time. The exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar has been depreciated and increased, and the two-way fluctuation may become normal near the reasonable equilibrium level.

Export volume exceeds the same period in 2019

In the first two months of 2021, the growth of China's textile and clothing exports is mainly concentrated in February. Under the circumstances of low base number, market demand recovery and "Spring Festival on the spot", under the joint effect of many places not stopping work during the Spring Festival, the export volume of that month has achieved a huge growth. The growth rate of textile and clothing, textiles and clothing is not only as high or close to three times as high as that of the same period last year, but also promotes the growth The export volume of the current month and the accumulated amount exceeded the level of the same period in 2019.

Meicheng is the largest export market of our textile and garment industry

After brexit, the United States has gradually surpassed the European Union (27 countries) to become China's largest export market of textiles and clothing. From January to February 2021, China's exports to the United States, the European Union, ASEAN and Japan reached US $8.51 billion, US $7.57 billion, US $6.71 billion and US $3.5 billion respectively, all of which achieved rapid growth, with growth rates of 85.6%, 57.1%, 65.7% and 51.8%, respectively. Among them, the export of garments to Europe, the United States and Japan, and yarn fabrics to ASEAN recovered rapidly, all exceeding the level of the same period in 2019.

With the further alleviation of the global epidemic situation, the procurement strategies of the three major markets in Europe, the United States and Japan have gradually returned to the track before the epidemic, and the market share of Chinese products has dropped from the peak. In December 2020, China's textile and clothing market accounted for 34.7% of the EU market, down 32.6 percentage points from the peak in May of that year; in January 2021, I accounted for 32.9% of the market share in the United States, down 27.5 percentage points at the higher point, and 58% in the Japanese market, and 16% lower at the higher point.

Recovery growth of commodity exports

Driven by the role of low base and anti epidemic materials, the export volume of textiles and clothing increased by 60.3% and 49.8% respectively from January to February this year, while the export of traditional bulk commodities such as yarn, fabric, finished products and knitwear clothing increased by 27.4%, 38.2%, 99% and 39.5% respectively.

According to the statistics of China Customs hs6 code (slightly larger caliber), the export volume of medical masks and medical protective clothing, as the main anti epidemic materials, reached a peak in May 2020, and then decreased month by month, but the export scale was still at a high level. From January to February, the total export of medical masks and medical protective clothing totaled 5.54 billion US dollars, accounting for 11.7% of the total export, which promoted the overall export by 6.4% effect.

Textile and clothing export growth in central and western regions ranked first

From January to February, the export volume of all provinces (cities and districts) increased by more than 50% except Tibet and Xinjiang. The export growth of Hubei, Guangxi, Jiangxi, Anhui, Yunnan and other provinces has more than doubled. The total growth rate of six provinces in Central China is 103%, and that of 12 provinces in Western China is 55%, which is higher than the national average.

Overall growth of imports driven by clothing

Textile and clothing imports stopped falling and turned up. From January to February, the cumulative import volume of textiles and clothing increased by 8.2% year-on-year, mainly driven by clothing, with a cumulative increase of 50.4%, of which knitted and woven garments increased by 37.8%. The import of intermediate goods has not yet recovered growth, and the overall import of textiles has decreased by 13.8%. Driven by the price rise, yarn has increased by 24.6%, fabrics have still decreased by 1.7%, and finished products have decreased by 50.7%.

Cotton imports continued to grow rapidly

In 2021, cotton imports continued the growth trend at the end of last year, with a cumulative import of 690000 tons in the first two months, a year-on-year increase of 67.5%. The United States is the largest source of imports, with a cumulative import of 298000 tons from the United States, an increase of more than three times. The proportion of American cotton is as high as 43%.

According to the analysis of China Cotton Association, in February, driven by the improvement of epidemic situation control at home and abroad and strong inflation expectations, the bulk commodity market continued to rise, and cotton prices at home and abroad also hit annual highs. Under the proposal of "Celebrating the new year on the spot" during the Spring Festival in China, the textile industry returned to work ahead of schedule, the demand and consumption of the textile industry continued to improve, and the domestic cotton price continued to rise.

The international cotton price fluctuated upward, and fell back at the end of February. China's import cotton price index FC index m was 94.07 cents / pound, up 5.47 cents month on month, up 16.17 cents year-on-year.